Toronto Market Slide Continues Into Summer Months

Prices have been falling and inventory has been rising all across the GTA since the Ontario Government announced it’s 16 point “Fair Housing Plan” in April. July prices were down very significantly from the early spring peak, lower than last spring and fall, and only about 5% higher than last July.

Prices_All_Property_Types_July_2017

 

Driving the fall in prices has been a precipitous climb in the inventory of homes for sale, from well under one month’s supply at the peak of the frenzy in early spring, to just over 3 months’ supply in July. This is an increase of almost 500% in just four months, and has taken us very swiftly from an extreme sellers’ market to a balanced market verging on a buyers’ market.

Inventory_July_2017

The divergence between the freehold and condominium markets has also continued. The average price for detached homes has tagged $1,000,000, down about 18% from the peak, while the average price for condominium apartments has fallen only 7% and is still 23% ahead of last July. It would seem that demand for real estate in the GTA remains very strong, it’s just shifting from houses to condos.

Prices__Detached_ July 2017

Prices_Condos_July_2017

The normal seasonality of the GTA market will likely cause prices to remain low or even fall a bit further over the next month, as is the usual tendency in the ‘dog days’ of August. The real test will be whether the market has a typical bounce back upward after Labour Day, or whether the decline has been so steep and so fast that sheer momentum will continue to carry the market lower.