Toronto Prices Surge Upward in September

Prices in the Toronto area were almost 6% higher in September than in August, and slightly higher than the peak reached in the spring. This was nothing new for condominium prices, which have been hitting new all-time highs with great regularity over the past two years, and printed yet another one last month.

What was strikingly different this time was that prices for freehold properties (mainly detached homes) jumped more than 7% over last month and broke dramatically out of the narrow range they’ve been inhabiting for more than 2 years.

Even more interesting, while average prices for freehold properties remain about 8% lower than the ‘bubble peak’ in 2017 for the GTA as a whole, prices in the City of Toronto have now surpassed the 2017 peak, and some of the ‘hot pockets’ in the city (e.g., Bloor West Village, High Park, The Kingsway, The Beach, etc) are more than 10% higher. The pattern  is beginning to look a lot like the lead-up to the early 2017 bubble. Prices for freehold properties increased strongly during the fall of 2016 and, after taking the usual December/January breather, took off like a shot in February of 2017.

With all the changes that have taken place since 2017, including the Ontario Foreign Buyers’s tax and the federal mortgage qualification ‘stress test’, it seems unlikely that we will see a repeat of the early 2017 insanity — but a very strong 2020 spring market is definitely in the cards. Always assuming, of course, that the rest of the world doesn’t get much crazier than it already is.